As the media increasingly focuses on the gossip issues that now define the 2008, U.S. presidential race, it has ignored the fact that all 435 members of the House of Representatives and 35 members of the U.S. Senate are up for reelection. The Senate elections, in particular, are key for both parties. The Democrats currently hold a razor-thin 51-49 majority (including Joe Lieberman and Bernie Sanders, indpendents who caucus with Democrats). On issues of foreign policy, it is usually a 50-50 split because Lieberman tends to vote with Republicans on those issues, most notably Iraq. The Republicans hope to regain control of the Senate in 2008, while the Democrats see an opportunity to extend their majority to as high as 57 seats. A majority that large would be a great procedural victory, then only 5 Republican votes would be needed to invoke cloture and bring legislation to a floor vote.
For the most part, however, the media has failed to cover the upcoming Senatorial elections. There was limited coverage in 2007, but, as good gossip issues such as flag lapel pins and Bosnia trips have come up, these important races have been ignored. Some of the most compelling include:
Virginia: Former Gov Mark Warner (D) is running for retiring Sen. John Warner’s (R) seat. Former Gov. Jim Gilmore (R) will be his opponent. Virginia is a state that has been trending democratic recently, with the election of Gov. Tim Kaine and Sen. Jim Webb. Rasmussen had a recent poll out showing Warner leading Gilmore, 55%-39%. If the popular Warner takes this seat, it could also play into the presidential elections, because Virginia is considered a state democrats have a shot at in 2008.
Colorado: Another potential “purple” state in 2008, Sen. Wayne Allard (R) is also retiring. This means that the election in a state Bush won by less than 5% in 2004 should be a tossup. In the last poll, Democrat Mark Udall led Republican Bob Schaffer 45 to 42 percent. Colorado looks to be a state in play in this general election, and the Senate race could affect which candidate takes its nine electoral votes.
New Mexico: Sen. Pete Domenici (R) is retiring, leaving a vacant seat in another state that should be close in 2008. The Democrats are running Congressmen Tom Udall while the Republicans have yet to decide between Steve Pearce and Heather Wilson. Udall led Pearce 54-40 and Wilson 56-36 in recent polling. Bush won New Mexico by just over 6,000 votes in 2004. A turnout push on either side could swing the state.
Alaska: Yes, Alaska is shaping up as a tossup. Who can believe it? But corruption problems and a possible looming federal indictment have significantly damaged the popularity of 84 year old Republican Ted Stevens. This would be a huge pickup for the Democrats in a state they rarely compete in. The latest poll show Stevens statistically tied 46-45% with his Democratic challenger, Anchorage mayor Mark Begich. An incumbent with as many problems already under 50% will have serious challenges come November. Even more problematic for Stevens is just 50% of the state has a favorable view of him, while his unfavorable is 47%. Democrats have the fundraising advantage this year, and the DNC will surely attack Stevens on ethics. This seat could be a surprise upset.
New Hampshire: Former Gov. Jeanne Shaheen (D) is once again challenging incumbent John Sununu (R). In 2002, Sununu beat Shaheen, 51-47%. With the country looking for change, this should again be a close race. Polls show Shaheen leading Sununu, 49-41%. The economy is the number 1 issue for New Hampshire voters, and they associate Sununu with the economic policies of the Bush administration.
Minnesota: Incumbent Republican Norm Coleman will face a tough challenge from Political Commentator Al Franken. A recent poll showed Coleman leading Franken 48-46%. However, Coleman is going to face the tough task of distancing himself from the unpopular Bush Administration while still getting the conservative vote to turn out. Franken also will be able to keep this a toss-up because of his fundraising abilities. This seat will be close, even though it is a moderate Republican facing a comedian. Remember, this is Minnesota, the state that elected a wrestler as Governor.
Louisiana: Republicans see this as their most likely chance at picking up a Democratic seat. Lousiana is a red state, and the RNC will attempt to tie Incumbent Mary Landrieu (D) to the more liberal Obama or Clinton. It appears she will face State Treasurer John Kennedy. The most recent poll showed Landrieu leading 50% to 38% with a 70% approval rating. This is encouraging poll for Democrats, because they lead in a state that is the Republicans only real shot at an upset.
So, what does all this mean? A lot. The Democrats could see their majority go as high as 56 or 57 seats. Republicans hope to keep 48 to 49 seats or even retake the Senate. Whatever the outcome, it will profoundly affect the next U.S. President’s ability to shape legislation. McCain could face a large Democratic majority that could lead to gridlock and make him use most of his political capital on continuing the Bush policy in Iraq. This would probably result in a more progressive solution to the economic crisis currently facing the nation. A narrow Democratic senate could present a challenge to Obama or Clinton and test their ability to work across the aisle as they look to build a coalition to change the direction of the country.
The media has lacked in their coverage of the Senatorial elections. Since there is no gossip or tabloid talk to be had when discussing Senate majorities (save maybe Steven’s possible indictment) and their legislative implications, they instead continue to focus on the Presidential race to the point that it drives even this steady political observer nearly insane.
-Sparty
2 Comments
April 22, 2008 at 4:44 pm
An outstanding analysis by Sparty. As Hill and Barack tear each other apart, an increasingly likely scenario is that the Dumb Dems will find a way to lose the White House (again) but substantially increase their majorities in both the House and Senate. Regrettably, this would mean McCain would probably appoint 1 or 2 Supreme Court judges, which is where the real damage can be done to current and future generations, and some retread discredited Cabinet officers (calling ex-FEMA chief Mike Brown anyone?). I disagree with Sparty that Hill’ “mis-statement” on Bosnia is media trivia; she’s the one touting her foreign policy experience and boasting that she would be the right person to answer the 3 am crisis phone call. How she managed to screw up the Bosnia statement is beyond belief. It was an outright lie. You’d think such stupidity among a leading Democrat was worthy only of Jimmy Carter.
May 6, 2008 at 6:55 pm
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